September 2023
Chief Investment Ofce GWM
Investment Research
UBS Global
Real Estate
Bubble Index
2 UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2023
Learn more at:
www.ubs.com/
global-real-estate-
bubble-index
3 Editorial
4 Key results
5 Deating bubbles
7 Regional focus
13 City benchmarks
15 City spotlights
22 City overview
23 Methodology & Data
UBS Global Real Estate
Bubble Index
This report has been prepared by
UBS Switzerland AG, UBS AG Singapore
Branch, UBS AG Hong Kong Branch, UBS AG
London Branch and UBS Financial Services
Inc. (UBS FS).
Please see the important disclaimer
at the end of the document. Past
performance is not an indication
of future returns.
Editor in Chief
Matthias Holzhey
Authors
Matthias Holzhey
Maciej Skoczek
Claudio Saputelli
Katharina Hofer
Regional contributors
Jonathan Woloshin (US)
Dean Turner (London)
Wen Ching Lee (Singapore)
Matteo Ramenghi (Milan)
Ronaldo Patah (São Paulo)
Editorial deadline
19 September 2023
Design
CIO Content Design
Cover photo
Getty Images
Language
English
Contact
[email protected]
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Content
3 UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2023
Dear reader,
Low nancing costs have been the lifeblood of global housing markets over the past
decade, driving home prices to dizzying heights. However, the abrupt end of the low
interest rate environment has shaken the house of cards. On average of all cities,
within the past year, ination-adjusted home prices have seen the sharpest drop
since the global nancial crisis in 2008. Cities that have been classied in the bubble
risk zone at least once in the past three years recorded an even stronger average
price decline. But the impact of higher interest rates has varied markedly across cities,
with the price correction depending on several other factors as well.
Where home nancing was already at the limit of aordability with low interest
rates, higher interest rates almost inevitably led to a slump in local demand.
If a market was characterized by a signicant decoupling of purchase prices from
rents, the rise in mortgage rates shied demand back to the rental market. In housing
markets that were predominantly short-term nanced, owner households immedi-
ately felt the higher nancing costs and were forced to accept lower prices when
selling. Where buy-to-let became popular during the low interest rate period, re
sales due to higher interest rates and slumping protability intensied a correction.
In cities where several of these factors came together at the same time—as in
Toronto, Frankfurt, and Stockholm, for example—re-pricing took place all the
faster and more severely.
In this issue, nd out in which cities property prices and valuations have fallen
the most, where (further) corrections are imminent, and where price increases
are continuing or could happen in the future.
We hope you enjoy reading it.
Editorial
Claudio Saputelli
Head Swiss & Global Real Estate
Chief Investment Ofce GWM
Matthias Holzhey
Senior Real Estate Economist
Chief Investment Ofce GWM
4 UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2023
Prices in
reverse gear
Most analyzed urban centers have
seen a real house price drop during
the last four quarters. In cities at
bubble risk during the last three years,
property prices have declined by 10%
on average.
Ination as
game-changer
Ination made a decisive contribution
to the reduction in imbalances. While
rising interest rates put pressure on
house prices, ination supports income
and rental growth. The latter has accel-
erated in most cities outside the US and
reached the highest value in almost
a decade.
Fewer cities
at bubble risk
Risk scores have dropped sharply
in most cities in recent quarters.
High imbalances persist in Zurich and
Tokyo—relatively low mortgage and
ination rates have not caused any
market disturbance there.
Defying
gravity
The most sought-aer destinations
in recent years are Singapore, Dubai,
and Miami. In those hotspots of interna-
tional demand, rental and for-sale price
growth clearly stand out. Prices are up
as much as 40% and rents 50% higher
than two years ago.
Tight nancing
conditions
Financial aordability of housing
has collapsed as mortgage rates
have roughly tripled since 2021 in
most markets. Therefore, household
leverage has been declining in most
countries in recent quarters.
Too early
for turnaround
There is more downside in real house
prices. However, a housing shortage
has set the stage for a renewed boom
in many cities—if interest rates fall.
Stockholm
Frankfurt
Munich
Zurich
Milan
Madrid
Dubai
Singapore
Sydney
Hong Kong
Tokyo
Geneva
Boston
New York
Los Angeles
San Francisco
Vancouver
Paris
Toronto
Miami
London
Amsterdam
1.65
1.24
0.47
0.67
0.14
0.74
1.71
1.35
0.98
0.49
0.73
1.13
0.46
1.27
0.80
1.21
1.38
1.03
0.47
0.81
0.27
0.34
0.93
Tel Aviv
Bubble risk (>1.5)
Overvalued (0.5 to 1.5)
Fair-valued (–0.5 to 0.5)
0.09
São Paulo
Warsaw
– 0.28
Key results
5 UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2023
The global surge in ination and interest rates over the past
two years has led to a sharp decline in imbalances in the hous-
ing markets of global nancial centers on average, as measured
by the UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index. In this year’s
edition, only the two cities Zurich and Tokyo have remained
in the bubble risk category, down from nine cities a year ago.
Formerly in the bubble risk zone, Toronto, Frankfurt, Munich,
Hong Kong, Vancouver, Amsterdam, and Tel Aviv saw their
imbalances decline and are now in the overvalued territory.
Housing markets in Miami, Geneva, Los Angeles, London,
Stockholm, Paris, and Sydney are overvalued as well.
Also, New York, Boston, San Francisco, and Madrid have expe-
rienced a drop in imbalances. These markets are now fairly
valued, according to the index, as are Milan, São Paulo, and
Warsaw. Singapore and Dubai are fairly valued as well, even
though their reputation as geopolitical safe-havens has recently
triggered a surge in demand for both renting and buying there.
Price corrections across the board
House price growth has suered due to rising nancing costs
as average mortgage rates have roughly tripled since 2021 in
most markets. Annual nominal price growth in the 25 cities
analyzed has come to a standstill aer a buoyant 10% rise
a year ago. In ination-adjusted terms, prices are even 5%
lower now than in mid-2022. On average the cities lost
most of the real price gains made during the pandemic
and are now close to mid-2020 levels again.
However, higher interest rates have impacted house prices
dierently depending on existing market imbalances
and prevailing mortgage terms. In Frankfurt and Toronto
—the two cities with the highest risk scores in last year’s
edition—real price tumbled by 15% in the last four quarters.
A combination of high market valuations and relatively short
mortgage terms put prices also under strong pressure in
Stockholm and to a lesser degree in Sydney, London, and
Vancouver. In contrast, in Madrid, New York, and São Paulo
—cities with moderate risk valuations so far—real home prices
have continued to rise at a subdued pace.
Identifying a bubble
Price bubbles are a recurring phenomenon in property markets.
The term “bubble” refers to a substantial and sustained mispric-
ing of an asset, the existence of which cannot be proved unless
it bursts. But historical data reveals patterns of property market
excesses. Typical signs include a decoupling of prices from local
incomes and rents, and imbalances in the real economy, such
asexcessive lending and construction activity. The UBS Global
Real Estate Bubble Index gauges the risk of aproperty bubble on
the basis of such patterns. The index does not predict whether
and when a correction will set in. A change in macroeconomic
momentum, a shi in investor sentiment or amajor supply
increase could trigger adecline in house prices.
Zurich
Tokyo
Miami
Munich
Frankfurt
Hong Kong
Toronto
Geneva
Los Angeles
London
Tel Aviv
Vancouver
Amsterdam
Stockholm
Paris
Sydney
Milan
New York
Singapore
Madrid
Boston
San Francisco
Dubai
São Paulo
Warsaw
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
Bubble risk
(>1.5)
Overvalued
(0.5 to 1.5)
Fair-valued
(–0.5 to 0.5)
Rank change
vs. 2022
UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index
Index scores for the housing markets of select cities, 2023
Source: UBS
For an explanation, see the section on Methodology & data on page 23.
1.71
1.65
1.38
1.35
1.27
1.24
1.21
1.13
1.03
0.98
0.93
0.81
0.80
0.73
0.67
0.49
0.47
0.47
0.46
0.34
0.27
0.14
0.09
0.74
–0.28
–0.5 0.00.5 1.01.5
Deflating bubbles
Deating bubbles
6 UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2023
Fundamentals supported by inflation
The widespread decrease in imbalances was not only a
consequence of falling house prices but was supported
by robust market fundamentals and declining household
leverage. As buying aordability has deteriorated signi-
cantly, renting has boomed. Apart from cities in the US,
nominal rental growth has accelerated markedly since
mid-2022 and has been positive in all locations analyzed.
The sharpest rises in rents were recorded in Singapore
and Dubai.
In the wake of general ination, nominal household
incomes have continued to grow at a solid pace com-
pared to the previous decade. And as mortgage lending
growth halved in the last four quarters, aggregate house-
hold debt to economic output has been declining, espe-
cially in Europe.
Demand shows green shoots
As unemployment rates in all the countries covered have
remained well below their ten-year averages, the ensu-
ing high level of job security has partly cushioned the
impact of rising nancing costs on housing demand.
But ination-driven income growth and price corrections
have not been enough to meaningfully improve aord-
ability. On average, the amount of living space that is
nancially aordable for a skilled service worker is still
40% lower than before the pandemic began. More
downside in prices—at least in real terms—is likely if
interest rates remain at their current elevated levels.
In some cities, however, the seeds for the next property
price boom have already been planted. Housing remains
undersupplied in most cities as hybrid working has not
weakened demand for city-living in a sustained manner.
In places where the number of building permits has
been declining signicantly in recent quarters—most
notably in European urban centers—the housing short-
age will likely intensify even more. Hence, housing
demand is piling up and prices may soar again as
soon as nancial conditions for households improve.
20100–10–20
Dubai
Miami
Tokyo
New York
Madrid
Singapore
Zurich
São Paulo
Geneva
Tel Aviv
Milan
Boston
Los Angeles
Hong Kong
Paris
Warsaw
Sydney
Vancouver
San Francisco
Munich
London
Amsterdam
Toronto
Frankfurt
Stockholm
2022 2023
Last 4 quarters Last 5 years
Housing market risk assessment
Falling prices
Residential real price growth rates, as of 2
nd
quarter 2023, annualized in %
Sources: See page 24.
7 UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2023
Eurozone
The house price level in both German cities analyzed, Frankfurt
and Munich, doubled between 2012 and 2022, which was
the strongest growth of all cities included in the study. Solid
economic and employment growth, falling mortgage rates,
strong investment demand, and supply shortages supported
higher prices. But prices have been overshooting, in our view.
Rate hikes and high ination triggered a revaluation. Peaking
in early 2022, real prices in Frankfurt have corrected by almost
20% since then (see spotlight Frankfurt p. 17), and by 15% in
Munich. Both cities have le the bubble risk zone, but remain
highly overvalued. The correction is still ongoing.
Prices in Amsterdam rallied by almost 20% in ination-
adjusted terms between 2020 and mid-2022 alone, decou-
pling from local rents and incomes. The UBS Global Real Estate
Bubble Index was ashing warning lights. Over the last four
quarters, prices have fallen by 14%—the strongest annual
correction since the 1980s. Several factors have simultaneously
weighed on owner-occupied demand: worsening nancing
conditions, ination diminishing households’ purchasing
power, and their willingness to buy a home, as well as the
reduction of the gi allowance for home ownership. More-
over, a higher transfer tax and prohibition of renting out aer
the purchase have decreased investment demand. The market
is now in overvalued territory, accroding to the index.
Falling mortgage rates and strong international demand were
the main drivers of a 30% real house price increase in Paris
between 2015 and 2020. The city became less aordable
and bigger ats for families were in short supply. People le
France’s capital city, rendering its population 5% lower than
a decade ago. Prices started falling in 2021. The decline has
accelerated in recent quarters as higher mortgage rates, lending
restrictions, and a property tax hike dampened buyer activity.
Overall, real prices corrected by 8% over the last four quarters,
the strongest decline in almost three decades, pushing the city
into overvalued territory.
Madrid’s housing market is in fair value territory. Compared
to other Eurozone cities, the Spanish capital has remained
aordable as measured by the price-to-income ratio. Aer
a three-year period of stagnation, prices increased by 3% in
ination-adjusted terms over the last four quarters. Overall,
they remain 25% below the all-time high in 2007. Demand
is shiing to the rental market as higher interest rates reduce
the attractiveness of purchasing property. More build-to-rent
developments are expected, keeping the market in balance.
Milan’s housing market has recorded rising prices since 2018.
Falling mortgage rates, a robust economy, new developments,
and a favorable tax regime supported housing demand.
Though nominal prices continued to rise between mid-2022
and mid-2023, they could not keep up with ination. Real
prices dropped by 2%, in line with local real rental and income
growth. We think the market remains fairly valued, virtually
unchanged from last year. Solid prospects for the local
economy, an extension of the underground railway, and
the upcoming 2026 Olympic Winter Games all contribute
to sustaining valuations in nominal terms.
2.5
1.5
0.5
–0.5
–1.5
–2.5
83 87 91 95 99 03 07 11 15 19 23
Frankfurt
Munich Amsterdam
#N/A
#N/A
Sour
ce: UBS
83 87 91 95 99 03 07 11 15 19 23
bubble risk
overvalued
fair-valued
undervalued
depressed
Madrid
Milan Paris
Source: UBS
Regional focus
Historical development of index scores
Regional focus
8 UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2023
Rest of Europe
Buying owner-occupied real estate in Zurich now costs over
50% more than a decade ago in nominal terms. An increasing
number of high-income earners and ultra-low interest rates
supported rising prices. The price level has not yet adapted
to increased nancing costs. The market is in the bubble risk
zone (see spotlight Zurich p. 16).
By contrast, house prices in Geneva are less than 20% higher
than ten years ago. Between mid-2022 and mid-2023, real
prices stagnated. The risk score is far lower than in 2013,
when the market was in bubble risk territory. Although the
Rhone-city benets from its international status, the economic
outlook is mixed, and population growth remains subdued as
out-migration to more aordable regions is signicant. How-
ever, new building permits are only about half their 10-year
average, supporting price levels in the medium term.
Real prices in London’s housing market have been on a
downward path since Brexit in 2016. Despite structural supply
shortages, prices have lagged the nationwide average. In the
absence of strong international demand, house prices remain
under pressure as—due to high mortgage rates—local aord-
ability is at its worst since 2007. Additionally, demand for buy-
to-let investments has abated: Although rents have increased
in nominal terms, they could not oset rising nancings costs.
The market remains in overvalued territory, in our view (see
spotlight London p. 18).
Between 2008 and 2021, falling mortgage rates have sup-
ported demand for owner-occupied homes and led to a sharp
rise in Stockholm’s real housing prices by almost 70%. The
surge was much faster than that of local incomes and rents,
as well as housing prices in other parts of the country. Exces-
sive housing valuations and a high reliance on variable-rate
mortgages turned out to be a dangerous cocktail. Currently,
aordability is stretched and as a result, between mid-2022
and mid-2023, ination-adjusted prices corrected by over
20%—more than in any other city analyzed. The market slid
from bubble risk to overvalued territory. That said, demand for
owner-occupied housing is likely to shoot up again as soon as
aordability improves. The overregulated and undersupplied
rental market is not a viable alternative for many prospective
owners.
Real house prices in Warsaw increased by almost 40%
between 2012 and 2022. The city attracted new citizens
and buy-to-let investors alike. Strong employment prospects,
a subway expansion, and modern housing developments
kept the market attractive. Against a backdrop of strong
and persistent ination, mortgage rates spiked, reducing
households’ willingness to pay for homes. This has led ina-
tion-adjusted prices to decline about 10% within a year and
moved demand to the rental sector, which is seeing strong
growth. However, new mortgage subsidies are about to
trigger a buying frenzy.
2.5
1.5
0.5
–0.5
–1.5
–2.5
83 87 91 95 99 03 07 11 15 19 23
Zurich
Geneva
Source: UBS
London WarsawStockholm
bubble risk
overvalued
fair-valued
undervalued
depressed
Source: UBS
83 87 91 95 99 03 07 11 15 19 23
Historical development of index scores
Regional focus
9 UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2023
United States
As a result of the sharp rise in mortgage rates and record-low
aordability, housing demand has weakened signicantly in
the US cities we analyzed. But income growth, a lack of avail-
able for-sale inventory, and a strong labor market have pre-
vented a meaningful correction in home prices. Nevertheless,
ination-adjusted prices fell on average of all analyzed US cities
by 2% between mid-2022 and mid-2023, in stark contrast to
an increase of almost 10% a year ago. Additionally, real rental
growth slowed substantially as the pandemic-induced demand
receded, new supply was delivered in several markets, and
vacancy rates bottomed out.
While imbalances in Miami and New York increased over the
last four quarters, housing markets in Boston, San Francisco,
and Los Angeles recorded lower index scores.
Housing prices in Miami continued to increase faster than the
nationwide average. The price level has more than doubled
over the last 10 years. Miami is the main beneciary of the
increased attractivity of sun belt cities in the US. Demand is
bolstered by continued population inux and the still relatively
low absolute price level compared to incomes. Having said
that, sales numbers have dropped and the upward pressure
on prices has eased as mortgage rates went up.
New York is in the middle of a strong comeback following
the market’s signicant weakness during the pandemic’s
lockdowns as many inhabitants le the city for less dense,
more aordable areas. Aer multiple years of eroding
values, real prices in the city’s housing market increased
by 3% between mid-2022 and mid-2023, outpacing the
national average for the rst time since 2016 (see spotlight
New York p. 19).
Conversely, Boston’s housing market dynamics have weakened.
Ination-adjusted prices corrected slightly between mid-2022
and mid-2023 while rents remained roughly stable. The mar-
ket is less synchronized with the rest of the US due to its high
dependency on startups, technology, and healthcare—which
recently underperformed and thus were less supportive for
housing demand. Overall, the market is fairly valued, in our
view.
The rebound on the San Francisco real estate market was
short-lived. Since mid-2022, prices have fallen 10% and rents
dropped 3% in ination-adjusted terms. The market is now
fairly valued, in our view. San Francisco is under pressure from
quality-of-life issues, elevated hybrid work patterns, and com-
petition with sun belt cities that attract technology companies.
Building permits are at their lowest in a decade, but vacancy
rates have remained elevated.
Imbalances in the Los Angeles housing market have slightly
soened, but the market remains overvalued, in our view.
Los Angeles is suering from a broad loss of economic com-
petitivity due to its signicant exposure to the technology and
entertainment sectors, quality of life challenges, adverse tax
legislation, and high costs of living. As income growth disap-
pointed and housing aordability deteriorated, inventory levels
have begun to climb.
83 87 91 95 99 03 07 11 15 19 23
bubble risk
overvalued
fair-valued
undervalued
depressed
New York
Boston Miami
Source: UBS
Historical development of index scores
2.5
1.5
0.5
–0.5
–1.5
–2.5
83 87 91 95 99 03 07 11 15 19 23
Los Angeles
San Francisco
Source: UBS
Regional focus
10 UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2023
2.5
1.5
0.5
–0.5
–1.5
–2.5
83 87 91 95 99 03 07 11 15 19 23
bubble risk
overvalued
fair-valued
undervalued
depressed
Toronto
Vancouver
Source: UBS
Canada
A combination of strong population growth, attractive nanc-
ing conditions, high investment demand, and an urban supply
shortage have fueled the housing bonanza in Vancouver and
Toronto for almost a quarter of century. Real prices more than
tripled in these cities between 2000 and 2022. For years, both
markets were ashing warning signals as local price levels
decoupled from the countrywide average and clearly outpaced
rental growth. During the pandemic, the housing boom
became a countrywide phenomenon as strong income growth
supported upsizing and mortgage rates continued to trend
downward. Overall, between mid-2019 and mid-2022, real
prices in Vancouver increased by 25% and by almost 35%
in Toronto, while household leverage rose at a fast pace.
In such a heated market environment, it doesn’t take much
for sentiment to change quickly: A mix of increasing nancing
costs and higher mortgage stress test rates tipped the scales.
Outstanding mortgage growth in Canada has slowed to the
lowest level since the beginning of the boom in 2000. The
number of housing sales has dropped almost 40%, reaching
its low at the beginning of 2023. Price levels in Vancouver and
Toronto have corrected by more than 10% in ination-adjusted
terms since mid-2022. We now rank these markets in overval-
ued territory.
As demand for living space in these cities is rising steadily,
the pressure is shiing to the rental market. In Vancouver,
real rents have climbed around 10% compared to a year ago,
while they are a good 5% higher in Toronto. Both cities were
showing signs of housing market recovery in the spring with
increasing numbers of transactions and positive price growth.
Nevertheless, it is premature to speak of a turnaround against
the backdrop of recent interest rate hikes from the Bank of
Canada.
Historical development of index scores
Regional focus
11 UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2023
Asia Pacic
Between 2003 and 2018, real house prices in Hong Kong
nearly quadrupled while incomes stagnated and rents
increased by just 50% in ination-adjusted terms. Housing is
barely aordable: A skilled service worker requires more than
20 times the average annual income to buy a 60 sqm at. The
city has constantly been at bubble risk levels since the rst edi-
tion of this study in 2015. Aer declining 7% between mid-
2022 and mid-2023, ination-adjusted house prices in Hong
Kong are back to levels last seen in 2017. Household leverage
stabilized and rents have been virtually unchanged in the last
four quarters as population inow increased. However, high
mortgage rates and a slow economic recovery in mainland
China put pressure on house demand. Overall, we now see
the city in overvalued territory. Rising inventories are a sign
that weakness on the housing market is going to persist in
the near future.
Singapore’s housing supply cannot keep up with strong local
and international demand, which began rising signicantly in
2018. Real prices have risen by 15% since then, despite regu-
latory tightening. However, this has been put into perspective
by rents, which have shot up by roughly 40% in the same
period. Overall, the housing market is fairly valued, in our
view (see spotlight Singapore p. 20).
Housing market imbalances in Tokyo have increased from
undervalued 20 years ago to bubble risk now. Real estate
prices have been rising almost continuously for over two
decades and decoupled from the rest of the country, bolstered
by attractive nancing conditions and population growth.
International investors have been attracted by the defensive
qualities of Tokyo’s residential market, heating up the price
growth. Moreover, as net immigration has weakened since
the pandemic, rents started to fall in 2020, aggravating imbal-
ances. Widespread home ofces and higher availability of
larger units made people leave the city center. Although
income growth could not keep pace with prices and mortgage
rates have increased (moderately) in recent quarters, nominal
house prices dynamics have not weakened.
The housing market in Sydney has been very volatile in recent
years. Aer a brief period of market weakness between 2018
and 2019, prices surged by almost 25% cumulatively across
2020 and 2021. Aggressive rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of
Australia more recently triggered a new sharp price correction.
Ination-adjusted prices are back to 2018 levels. Further
downside is limited though, as foreign demand has been
improving. Amid robust rental growth and lower household
leverage, imbalances have declined sharply. The market is
classied at the lower end of the overvalued territory.
2.5
1.5
0.5
–0.5
–1.5
–2.5
83 87 91 95 99 03 07 11 15 19 23
Hong Kong
Singapore
Source: UBS
TokyoSydney
bubble risk
overvalued
fair-valued
undervalued
depressed
83 87 91 95 99 03 07 11 15 19 23
Source: UBS
Historical development of index scores
Regional focus
12 UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2023
Middle East
With housing prices sliding for seven straight years, the mar-
ket for owner-occupied housing in Dubai started recovering in
2021. The risk score has dropped signicantly over the course
of this 10-year period. In the last four quarters, housing prices
increased by a double-digit rate. Given strong income growth
and a red-hot rental market, with rental growth even surpass-
ing owner-occupied price growth, we see the market as fairly
valued. While Dubai is highly cyclical and prone to overbuild-
ing, price momentum should remain strong in the coming
quarters (see spotlight Dubai p. 21).
Between 2002 and 2022, real house prices in Tel Aviv tripled,
the highest growth of all cities we analyzed. Backed by falling
interest rates and accompanied by a housing shortage, the
housing price level in the city decoupled from the rental
market and prices in the rest of the country. Household
incomes could not keep up with prices, leading to stretched
aordability. It is no surprise, that rising mortgage rates during
2022 ended the party. Mortgage volume growth has more
than halved since last year. As a result, real price growth was
negative in the rst half of 2023. This moderate easing will
likely continue as there are no signs of a demand rebound.
Moreover, past eorts by the government to increase housing
supply may backre now, because unsold inventories have
been piling up amid a full construction pipeline.
Brazil
The period of sharply rising real estate prices in São Paulo
came to an abrupt halt in 2014. An economic recession,
strong housing supply expansion, and rising mortgage rates
triggered price declines. Since then, ination-adjusted housing
price growth has continuously remained in negative territory
and has stabilized only in recent quarters, roughly 25% below
the peak. While the willingness to pay has been supported by
a recovery of household incomes aer the pandemic, double-
digit mortgage rates have suocated demand for owner-
occupied housing. Hence, many have switched from owning
to renting, leading real rents to rise by almost 10% in the last
four quarters. This puts the market in fairly valued territory, in
our view. But the tide might be turning. Ination is coming
down and the central bank has already started a new period
of monetary easing. Although economic growth will likely
slow down, gradually improving nancing conditions could
boost the housing market in the coming quarters.
2.5
1.5
0.5
–0.5
–1.5
–2.5
Dubai Tel Aviv
87 91 95 99 03 07 11 15 19 23
Source: UBS
São Paulo
07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
bubble risk
overvalued
fair-valued
undervalued
depressed
Source: UBS
Historical development of index scores
13 UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2023
Although on average of the cities analyzed, house prices have
declined slightly and income growth has been relatively stable
over the last four quarters, aordability remains stretched in
many locations. Buying a 60 square meter (650 square foot)
apartment exceeds the budget of those who earn the average
annual income in the skilled service sector in most world cities.
In Hong Kong, even those earning twice this income would
struggle to aord an apartment of that size. House prices
remain decoupled from local incomes in Tokyo, Paris, Tel Aviv,
and London, where more than 10 times the annual income is
required to buy a 60 square meter at. Unaordable housing
oen signals strong foreign investment, tight zoning, and strict
rental market regulations. Weakening investment demand
increases the risk of a price correction and weighs on long-term
appreciation prospects.
By contrast, the average price-to-income ratio is much smaller
to purchase a small apartment in Miami, Madrid, and Toronto,
which makes the price level more sustainable in those cities.
Given relatively high incomes, purchasing a 60 square meter
apartment also looks relatively feasible for residents of Boston,
Los Angeles, Geneva, or Zurich.
For homebuyers, aordability depends primarily on mortgage
rates and amortization obligations. If interest and amortization
rates are relatively high, the burden on monthly income can be
heavy even in cities with low price-to-income multiples like
those in the US. Conversely, elevated purchase prices can be
sustained with relatively low interest rates and no requirement
of full amortization, as seen in Switzerland and the Netherlands.
The number of years a skilled service worker needs to work
to be able to buy a 60m
2
(650 sq) at near the city center
Hong Kong
To
kyo
Pari
s
Te
l Aviv
London
Singapor
e
Munic
h
São Paulo
New
York
Zurich
Geneva
Mila
n
Sydne
y
Amster
dam
Va
ncouver
Frankfurt
W
arsaw
Los Angele
s
Duba
i
Bosto
n
Stockholm
To
ronto
Madrid
San Francisc
o
Miami
Average value Range* Value in 2013
1 5 10 15 20 25 years
1 5 10 15 20 25 years
Source: UBS. Remark: For an explanation, see the section on Methodology & data on page 23.
The data is not comparable with previous years due to a comprehensive data revision.
* Uncertainty range due to differing data quality.
City benchmarks
Price-to-income
City benchmarks
14 UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2023
Price-to-rent multiples declined on average compared to last
year, as rental growth outpaced price appreciation. That said,
almost a third of the cities covered have price-to-rent multiples
above or close to 30. The highest price-to-rent ratios are cur-
rently reported in Tel Aviv, Munich, and Hong Kong, followed
by Zurich, Geneva, and Frankfurt. Such high multiples come
from an excessive appreciation of housing prices in the wake
of previously low interest rates. House prices in all these cities
remain vulnerable to corrections should interest rates remain
elevated for longer or continue to rise further.
The US cities analyzed in the study exhibit some of the lowest
multiples among the markets analyzed. These reect, among
other things, above-average interest rates and relatively mildly
regulated rental markets. Conversely, rental laws in France,
Germany, and Sweden are strongly pro-tenant, keeping rents
below their true market levels, as reected in high price-to-
rent ratios.
However, elevated price-to-rent multiples may also show
expectations of rising prices, as is the case in Tel Aviv, Zurich,
or Munich. Investors expect to be compensated for very low
rental yields with capital gains. If these hopes do not material-
ize and expectations deteriorate, homeowners in markets with
high price-to-rent multiples are likely to suer signicant capi-
tal losses.
Price-to-rent
The number of years a at of the same size needs to be rented out to pay for the at
Tel Aviv
Hong Kong
Geneva
Zurich
Munich
Frankfurt
Tokyo
Paris
Sydney
Stockholm
Milan
Amsterdam
London
Singapore
Toronto
Vancouver
Boston
Madrid
New York
Los Angeles
São Paulo
San Francisco
Warsaw
Dubai
Miami
Average value Range* Value in 2013
5 10 15 20 25 30 35
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
40 45
50 years
50 years
Source: UBS. Remark: For an explanation, see the section on Methodology & data on page 23. The data is not comparable with previous years due to a comprehensive data revision.
* Uncertainty range due to differing data quality.
15 UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2023
16 Zurich
17 Frankfurt
18 London
19 New York
20 Singapore
21 Dubai
City spotlights
16 UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2023
Zurich
Sticky prices
Home prices in Zurich continued to rise in 2023, albeit at a
slower pace than in previous years. Buyers of residential proper-
ties now pay 40% more in real terms than a decade ago. This
was signicantly more than on country average and stronger
than rents, which have risen by almost 12% since 2013. The
relationship between purchase prices and rents remains out of
balance—especially considering the higher interest rate environ-
ment. The market therefore stays in the bubble risk zone.
In recent quarters, however, imbalances have been slightly
reduced, as rental growth has accelerated sharply and nally
surpassed house price growth. At currently higher nancing
costs, purchasing a home only pays o nancially compared to
renting if its market value increases in the long run. Buy-to-let
investments have become unattractive. As a result, the supply of
available housing has climbed back to pre-pandemic levels and
the number of transactions has declined. For the coming quar-
ters, we do not expect to see any more price upside, contribut-
ing to lower imbalances.
A sharp price correction—as observed in other global nancial
centers—is generally rather unlikely. A signicant countrywide
drop in building permits supports the perception of property as
“concrete gold.” First, a persistently high share of money mar-
ket nancing suggests that many buyers expect interest rates to
decrease again in the mid-term. Second, the market size of the
owner-occupied housing segment is relatively small. And third,
the city is seeing strong employment growth in well-paying
industries. Hence, even though purchasing a home is nancially
not feasible for large parts of the local population, prices may
stay relatively elevated for longer.
Development of sub-indices
Standardized values
83 87 91 95 99 03 07 11 15 19 23
3.0
1.5
0
–1.5
–3.0
Price-income ratio
Price-rent ratio
Change in construction/GDP
Change in mortgage/GDP
City/country price ratio
Source: UBS
12
4
8
0
Annual house price growth rates
Nominal in %, as of 2
nd
quarter
year-over-year 20-year average
05 07 09 11 13 15 17 18 19 20 21 22 2304 06 08 10 12 14 16
Source: UBS
17 UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2023
Frankfurt
Bottom not (yet) reached
According to the UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index, Frank-
furt was among the cities with the highest real estate bubble
risk in recent years. But the sharp rise in mortgage interest
rates in Germany has abruptly ended that house price boom.
Adjusted for ination, prices have corrected by almost 20%
since the end of 2021. Higher nancing costs have also turned
buy-to-let purchases into lossmaking investments. Overall,
Frankfurt´s housing market is now in overvalued territory, in
our view.
The abrupt decline in the index score has two main causes.
First, rents and incomes have risen more sharply than house
prices in nominal terms, such that existing imbalances have
been reduced. Second, the growth of outstanding mortgage
volumes has slowed down.
The price correction is unlikely to be over yet, unless interest
rates fall again. Purchase prices are currently twice as high
as they were 10 years ago, while rents have risen “only”
40% during the same period. In fact, the sharp slowdown
in residential construction activity and the rising population
in Frankfurt suggest an exacerbated housing shortage as
well as accelerated rent increases in the future. But in view
of a weak economic outlook, additional demand is likely to
be concentrated in the lower-priced rental segment, at least
in the short term. Owners of old buildings may be confronted
with high renovation costs to improve energy efciency due
to nationwide regulatory requirements. This could lead to
additional discounts on property values.
Annual house price growth rates
Nominal in %, as of 2
nd
quarter
15
0
5
10
–15
–10
–5
year-over-year 20-year average
Source: UBS
05 07 09 11 13 15 17 18 19 20 21 22 2304 06 08 10 12 14 16
3.0
1.5
0
–1.5
–3.0
Sour
ce: UBS
83 87 91 95 99 03 07 11 15 19
23
Price-income ratio
Price-rent ratio
Change in construction/GDP
Change in mortgage/GDP
City/country price ratio
Development of sub-indices
Standar
dized values
18 UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2023
London
In no man’s land
Since reaching an all-time high in 2016, houses prices in Lon-
don have been falling in real terms, shedding a total of almost
25%. In the last four quarters alone, they declined by 14%,
which marks the strongest correction since the global nancial
crisis 15 years ago. As mortgage rates roughly tripled within a
few quarters, demand on the broad London housing market
has crumbled. The prime sector has been impacted to a lesser
degree by increasing mortgage rates as cash buyers dominate
the market. Nevertheless, prime prices were only just able to
hold their own without an inux of wealthy foreign buyers
and the pound sterling appreciating. Overall, the market risk
score according to the UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index
has continued to fall, but remains in overvalued territory.
According to Nationwide, a building society, rst-time buyer
mortgage payments in UK’s capital city currently make up
roughly two-thirds of take-home pay—this value was less than
half only three years ago. Leveraged buy-to-let investments
have turned into lossmaking endeavors as landlords have not
been able to oset elevated nancing costs. Although rents
increased by 5% in nominal terms over the last four quarters,
they were outpaced by double-digit ination rates. Combined
with an economic slowdown, households have lost purchasing
power and are less willing to make long-term investments like
home purchases. Overall, the price correction to the higher
interest rate environment is not over yet. That said, the slow
expansion of housing supply keeps the market structurally
undersupplied, which limits the downside.
20
0
10
–20
–10
Annual house price growth rates
Nominal in %, as of 2
nd
quarter
year-over-year 20-year average
Source: UBS
05 07 09 11 13 15 17 18 19 20 21 22 2304 06 08 10 12 14 16
3.0
1.5
0
–1.5
–3.0
83 87 91 95 99 03 07 11 15 19 23
Price-income ratio
Price-rent ratio
Change in construction/GDP
Change in mortgage/GDP
City/country price ratio
Development of sub-indices
Standardized values
Source: UBS
19 UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2023
New York
Surprise, surprise
The pandemic-induced rollercoaster ride of New York’s resi-
dential property market has largely come to an end. In 2021
and 2022, the Manhattan housing market recovered strongly
as restrictions were gradually lied and people came back
to the city. As supply is structurally tight and—more impor-
tantly—the market was not at bubble risk, the sharp interest
rate increases have only had a limited eect on local housing
prices. Between mid-2022 and mid-2023, for-sale prices
increased by more than 3% in ination-adjusted terms and
recouped all of the losses accumulated during the pandemic.
The luxury segment has also held up well, with sales prices rising
in nine of the past 10 quarters as the proliferation of all cash
buyers has helped bolster the market in the face of rising inter-
est rates. However, sales activity has signicantly declined since
the end of 2022 as the months of available supply and listing
discounts increased substantially, according to real estate rm
Douglas Elliman.
Overall, the New York residential property market is fairly
valued and expected to stay stable for the time being, in our
view. On the one hand, a combination of high interest rates,
economic uncertainty, and strained aordability limit upside
in the for-sale and for-rent segments over the coming quarters.
On the other, low vacancy rates and subdued construction
activity support current price and rental levels. This is unlikely
to change soon as expiration of tax incentive programs for
developers and elevated building costs combined with con-
cerns of additional adverse rent control legislation make new
development an unattractive risk-adjusted return proposition.
3.0
1.5
0
–1.5
–3.0
83 87 91 95 99 03 07 11 15 19 23
Price-income ratio
Price-rent ratio
Change in construction/GDP
Change in mortgage/GDP
City/country price ratio
Development of sub-indices
Standardized values
Source: UBS
15
0
5
10
–10
–5
Annual house price growth rates
Nominal in %, as of 2
nd
quarter
year-over-year 20-year average
Source: UBS
05 07 09 11 13 15 17 18 19 20 21 22 2304 06 08 10 12 14 16
20 UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2023
Singapore
Calmer waters ahead
Singapore’s private residential market continues to benet
from the city’s safe-haven reputation amid geopolitical ten-
sions attracting expats, wealthy investors, and new businesses.
Younger generations seek their own apartments, creating
additional housing needs. Despite strong demand for living
space, the housing market has le overvalued territory and
we newly classify it as fairly valued.
Rental growth has been accelerating since 2021 and is outpac-
ing house prices by now. Currently, tenants pay almost 25%
higher rents than a year ago, the highest ination-adjusted
increase among all cities analyzed. In contrast, price dynamics
in the private market have slowed down in recent quarters and
house prices increased by only 3% in ination-adjusted terms
between mid-2022 and mid-2023. That said, we expect rents
to soen going forward, as supply constraints induced by pan-
demic lockdowns ease and physical housing completions
grow. Rental demand should also moderate as the bulk of
post-pandemic international relocations is now behind us.
The housing market cooling measures introduced in recent
years are starting to take eect. Stamp duties for foreigners
have been raised to 60%—the highest globally—signicantly
curtailing foreign demand. Also locals are contending with
tighter policies: Lower loan-to-value ratios, tighter debt servicing
ratios, and rising mortgage rates have dampened both
demand and aordability. Going forward, we expect home
price growth to moderate and rents to fall as housing supply
ramps up and demand stabilizes. Buy-to-let investors must
keep regulatory risks in mind, as the government has not ruled
out rental market regulations in the future.
30
0
15
–30
–15
Annual house price growth rates
Nominal in %, as of 2
nd
quarter
year-over-year 20-year average
Source: UBS
05 07 09 11 13 15 17 18 19 20 21 22 2304 06 08 10 12 14 16
3.0
1.5
0
–1.5
–3.0
83 87 91 95 99 03 07 11 15 19 23
Price-income ratio
Price-rent ratio
Change in construction/GDP
Change in mortgage/GDP
Real price
Development of sub-indices
Standardized values
Source: UBS
Remark: The analysis refers to the private residential market only.
21 UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2023
Dubai
Windfall prots
The seven-year long drought of falling real estate prices has
become a distant memory. Prices have been booming since
2021 and increased by 15% in ination-adjusted terms
between mid-2022 and mid-2023, the highest growth rate
among all cities analyzed in the study. Price increases in the
luxury segment were even stronger.
Dubai has attracted real estate investors globally. A new visa
program with looser residency requirements aimed at wealthy
and skilled individuals, no personal income tax, and early li-
ing of travel restrictions during the pandemic have stimulated
immigration. Moreover, supported by higher commodity
prices, Dubai has seen strong economic and household
income growth since 2021, topping other cities. Consequently,
residential transaction volumes have gone through the roof,
breaking all-time highs. Nevertheless, ination-adjusted prices
are around 25% below their 2014 peak. Furthermore, as many
newcomers rent before potentially buying in the future, rents
have increased by 20% in ination-adjusted terms over the
last four quarters. As a result, the market remains in fair value
territory, in our view.
We expect weakening momentum in the coming quarters.
Although the market is largely nanced by cash purchases,
increased mortgage interest rates will take their toll. An ongo-
ing strong expansion of supply—particularly of apartments—is
also likely to limit price growth. Finally, buyers’ willingness to
pay may abate against the backdrop of a global economic
slowdown. That said, the markets outlook remains dependent
on geopolitical developments.
30
0
15
–30
–15
Annual house price growth rates
Nominal in %, as of
2
nd
quarter
year-over-year 20-year average
Source: UBS
05 07 09 11 13 15 17 18 19 20 21 22 2304 06 08 10 12 14 16
03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
3.0
1.5
0
–1.5
–3.0
Price-income ratio
Price-rent ratio
Change in construction/GDP
Change in mortgage/GDP
Real price
Development of sub-indices
Standardized values
Source: UBS
22 UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2023
UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index Real price growth Real rental growth
Total Sub-indices Annualized, in % Annualized, in %
Rank City
Score
Assessment
Price / Income
Price / Rent
City / Country
1
Mortgage
2
Construction
2
Last year
Last 10 years
Last year
Last 10 years
1 Zurich 1.71
l l l l l l
1.5 3.4 6.9 1.2
2
Tokyo
1.65
l l l l l l
3.6 4.8 –3.7 0.1
3
Miami
1.38
l l l l l l
6.0 7.6 2.0 3.8
4 Munich 1.35
l l l l l l
–13.8 4.6 –3.1 2.1
5 Frankfurt 1.27
l l l l l l
–15.9 4.8 –4.3 1.2
6
Hong Kong
1.24
l l l l l l
–7.1 0.8 –1.6 –1.2
7 Toronto 1.21
l l l l l l
–14.7 5.7 6.0 2.2
8 Geneva 1.13
l l l l l l
–0.1 1.1 1.1 –0.2
9 Los Angeles 1.03
l l l l l l
–3.7 5.0 –1.4 2.1
10
London
0.98
l l l l l l
–13.9 0.9 –5.2 –2.2
11
Tel Aviv
0.93
l l l l l l
–0.7 4.5 2.8 2.2
12 Vancouver 0.81
l l l l l l
–10.6 4.8 10.7 2.9
13 Amsterdam 0.80
l l l l l l
–14.0 5.2 4.1 2.1
14
Stockholm
0.74
l l l l l l
–22.1 2.4 –4.9 0.2
15 Paris 0.73
l l l l l l
–7.9 0.6 –1.3 –0.7
16 Sydney 0.67
l l l l l l
–10.5 3.9 2.8 0.9
17 Milan 0.49
l l l l l l
–1.9 –1.0 –2.4 –1.1
18 New York 0.47
l l l l l l
3.2 1.3 –1.5 –0.8
19
Singapore
0.47
l l l l l l
2.8 0.9 23.0 1.8
20 Madrid 0.46
l l l l l l
2.9 2.3 7.6 1.5
21 Boston 0.34
l l l l l l
–3.4 3.5 1.1 2.1
22
San Francisco
0.27
l l l l l l
–10.6 2.7 –3.1 –0.4
23 Dubai 0.14
l l l l l l
14.6 –0.1 20.3 –0.2
24 São Paulo 0.09
l l l l l l
1.4 –2.1 9.0 –2.5
25 Warsaw –0.28
l l l l l l
–9.3 1.8 2.0 0.4
l
Bubble risk (above 1.5 standard deviations)
l
Overvalued (between 0.5 and 1.5 standard deviations)
l
Fair-valued (between –0.5 and 0.5 standard deviations)
lUndervalued (below –0.5 standard deviations)
1
Price ratio. For Hong Kong, Singapore and Dubai real prices.
2
Compared to GDP, annual change
Source: UBS
City overview
23 UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2023
Methodology & data
The UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index traces the funda-
mental valuation of housing markets and the valuation of
cities in relation both to their country and to economic distor-
tions (lending and building booms). Tracking current values,
the index uses the following risk-based classications:
depressed (score below –1.5), undervalued (–1.5 to –0.5),
fair-valued (–0.5 to 0.5), overvalued (0.5 to 1.5), and bubble
risk (above 1.5). This classication is aligned with historical
bubble episodes. We cannot predict if or when a correction
will hap pen. Hence, “bubble risk” refers to the preva lence of
a high risk of a large price correction.
The index score is a weighted average of the following ve
standardized city sub-indices: price-to-income and price-to-
rent ratios (fundamental valuation), change in mortgage-to-
GDP ratio and change in construction-to-GDP ratio (economic
distortion), and city-to-country price ratio. The city-to-country
price ratio in Singapore, Hong Kong, and Dubai is replaced by
an ination-adjusted price index. The approach cannot fully
account for the complexity of the bubble phenomenon.
The sub-indices are constructed from specic city-level data,
except for mortgage-to-GDP and construction-to-GDP ratios,
which are calculated on the country level. In most cases, pub-
licly available data is used. But in a few cases, the data consists
of, or is supplemented by additional sources, including the
results of the UBS Prices and Earnings survey. The index length
varies by city depending on data availability. The longest data
series starts in 1980, the shortest in 2009. For time series
shorter than 30 years, the coefcient of variation of an
equivalent indicator on the country level is used as a oor
value to calculate the volatility of the city-level indicator
(subject to availability). We also took into account the availability
of data when deciding which cities to include in the index.
We considered the importance of the city for global nancial
markets and residential real estate investments. Please see the
description of data sources on page 24.
The weights of the sub-indices are determined using factor
analysis, as recommended by the OECD Handbook on
Constructing Composite Indicators (2008). Factor analysis
weights the sub-indices to capture as much of the common
underlying bubble risk information as possible. As the drivers
of bubbles vary across cities, this method results in city-specic
weights on sub-indices. To prevent overweighting country level
variables and to increase the comparability of cities, the devia-
tion from the average weight across all cities is limited.
Weights adjusted this way approximate the average factor
analysis weight of single indices across the cities and comple-
ment the calculation. The nal weights are subject to minor
changes when new data enters the calculation or past data
is revised.
Benchmarking
The analysis is complemented by a city benchmarking using
current price-to-income and price-to-rent ratios. The price-to-
income ratio indicates how many years a skilled service worker
needs to work to be able to buy a 60 square meter (650
square foot) at near the city center. The price-to-rent ratio
signals how expensive owner-occupied homes are relative to
rental apartments. The higher the ratios, the more expensive
buying becomes. Earnings data is taken primarily from the
UBS Prices and Earnings survey and from ofcial statistical
sources. Real estate prices and rents vary widely near the city
center. Our estimates are cross-checked, validated using dier-
ent sources, and are updated and challenged on an annual
basis. However, we also specify an uncertainty range due to
the diering quality of data sources.
Methodology & data
24 UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2023
Data sources
Price Index
(City)
Rent Index
(City)
Income Index
(City)
Price Index
(Country)
Mortgage, Construction,
GDP, Ination (Country)
Amsterdam 2023Q2 CBS, Maastricht
University
NVM, UBS P&E UBS P&E, CBS CBS, FED Dallas DNB, CBS, EUKLEMS,
Bloomberg
Boston 2023Q2 FHFA, S&P/Shiller CBRE, FED St. Louis BEA FHFA FED, BEA, Bloomberg
Dubai 2023Q2 Reidin, BIS Reidin, UBS P&E UBS P&E, Morgan
Stanley, Bloomberg
– Central Bank UAE, Dubai
Statistics Center,
Morgan Stanley, Bloomberg
Frankfurt 2023Q2 Bulwiengesa Bulwiengesa, OECD Destatis, UBS P&E,
OECD
FED Dallas Deutsche Bundesbank,
Destatis, EUKLEMS, Bloomberg
Geneva 2023Q2 Wüest Partner Statistique Genève FTA, FSO Wüest Partner SNB, SECO, FSO
Hong Kong 2023Q2 RVD RVD Census and Statistics
Department Hong
Kong, Bloomberg
– Census and Statistics Depart-
ment Hong Kong, HKMA,
Macrobond, Bloomberg
London 2023Q2 Nationwide ONS, UBS P&E ONS Nationwide BoE, ONS, EUKLEMS,
Bloomberg
Los Angeles 2023Q2 FHFA, S&P/Shiller CBRE, FED St. Louis BEA FHFA FED, BEA, Bloomberg
Madrid 2023Q2 BoS Ayuntamiento de
Madrid
INE BoS INE, BoS, EUKLEMS, Bloomberg
Miami 2023Q2 FHFA, S&P/Shiller CBRE, FED St. Louis BEA FHFA FED, BEA, Bloomberg
Milan 2023Q2 Nomisma Nomisma, OECD Dipartimento delle
Finanze, UBS P&E
FED Dallas Banca d’Italia, Hypostat, Istat,
EUKLEMS, Macrobond,
Bloomberg
Munich 2023Q2 Bulwiengesa Bulwiengesa, OECD Destatis, UBS P&E,
OECD
FED Dallas Deutsche Bundesbank,
Destatis, EUKLEMS, Bloomberg
New York 2023Q2 FHFA, S&P/Shiller CBRE, CoStar, FED
St. Louis
BEA FHFA FED, BEA, Bloomberg
Paris 2023Q2 BIS, CGEDD Insee Insee, Bloomberg,
UBS P&E
FED Dallas BdF, Insee, EUKLEMS, Macro-
bond, Bloomberg
San Francisco 2023Q2 FHFA, S&P/Shiller CBRE, FED St. Louis BEA FHFA FED, BEA, Bloomberg
São Paulo 2023Q2 Fipe Fipe Fundação Seade Fipe Banco do Brasil, IBGE,
Bloomberg
Singapore 2023Q2 Government of
Singapore
Government of
Singapore, UBS P&E
Government
of Singapore
– Government of Singapore,
Bloomberg
Stockholm 2023Q2 Statistics Sweden,
Valueguard
Statistics Sweden,
UBS P&E
Statistics Sweden,
UBS P&E
Statistics Sweden Statistics Sweden, Bloomberg
Sydney 2023Q2 REIA, ABS REIA, NSW Govern-
ment, UBS P&E
ABS, UBS P&E FED Dallas ABS, RBA, Bloomberg
Tel Aviv 2023Q2 CBS CBS, UBS P&E CBS, UBS P&E FED Dallas BoI, Bloomberg
Tokyo 2023Q2 The Real Estate
Transaction Promo-
tion Center, Haver
Analytics
Miki Syoji, Ofcial
Statistics of Japan
INDB, Tokyo Metro-
politan Government,
UBS P&E
FED Dallas ESRI, EUKLEMS, Bloomberg
Toronto 2023Q2 Sauder School
of Business UBC,
Bloomberg
Canadian Housing
Observer, Sauder
School of Business
UBC
Statistics Canada FED Dallas Statistics Canada, BoC,
Bloomberg
Vancouver 2023Q2 Sauder School
of Business UBC,
Bloomberg
Canadian Housing
Observer, Sauder
School of Business
UBC
Statistics Canada,
Government
of British Columbia
FED Dallas Statistics Canada, BoC,
Bloomberg
Warsaw 2023Q2 National Bank
of Poland
National Bank of
Poland
Statistics Poland National Bank
of Poland
National Bank of Poland,
Statistics Poland, Bloomberg
Zurich 2023Q2 Wüest Partner Statistik Stadt
Zürich
FTA, FSO Wüest Partner SNB, SECO, FSO
25 UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2023
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26 UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2023
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